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Published: Dec 29, 2021
Updated: Dec 29, 2021

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How far has India come in the 75 years since it threw off its colonial shackles and stepped onto the highway of freedom and the attendant obligations of self-development and selfreliance? The answers may vary, depending on what aspect of the country’s economy and society one focuses on. But what is undeniable is that, notwithstanding pitfalls, galloping inequalities and the current setback from the coronavirus pandemic, tremendous progress has been achieved on various economic and sociological parameters. In this I-Day issue, Corporate India paints a factual as well as optimistic canvas, highlighting the country’s progress under all its leaders from Jawaharlal Nehru to Narendra Modi and the seminal Narasimha Rao-Manmohan Singh reforms of 1991.

Shortly after India cast off British rule, the country’s GDP in 1950-51 was Rs 2,939 billion. Today (2019-20, to be exact), the same economic yardstick is a humongous Rs 140,776 billion. The income of the ‘aam aadmi’ has followed suit, zooming from a mere subsistence level of around Rs 7,000 in 1950-51 to a comfortable Rs 100,000-plus today. Needless to say, the coronavirus pandemic has been a rude jolt, but there is no reason to believe that the aim of growing a $ 5 trillion economy is out of reach. Corporate India details the country’s overall success story, sandwiched between the inspirational speech of the country’s first Prime Minister and the ‘Atmanirbhar’ stress of the current PM Narendra Modi.

“...The ambition of the greatest man of our generation has been to wipe every tear from every eye. That may be beyond us, but so long as there are tears and suffering, so long our work will not be over. And so we have to labour and to work, and work hard, to give reality to our dreams. Those dreams are for India, but they are also for the world.”

Nehru reminded the country that the tasks ahead included “the ending of poverty and ignorance and disease, and inequality of opportunity”. These were the basic foundations on which India embarked upon its path of development since gaining independence in 1947.

“There is a Neelakurinji flower which blooms once every 12 years. This year, Neelakurinji is in full bloom on the hills of Southern Nilgiri like the Ashok Chakra (the wheel of Ashoka) in the Tricolour on our Independence Day. “I have shared my vision for Team India earlier too. When 125 crore countrymen become partners, then each and every citizen joins us in the progress of the country. When 125 crore dreams, 125 crore resolves, 125 crore efforts, move in the right direction to attain desired goals then nothing is unattainable.

“Dear brothers and sisters, with utmost humility and respect, I would like to share that in 2014, 125 crore citizens did not rest after voting for the government. The citizens did not stop at government formation, but worked to build the nation. They have come together, were together and will continue to be together. I feel that this synergy of 125 crore active citizens from more than 6 lakh villages is the real strength of our nation.

“If we talk about providing electricity to villages on the basis of work done in 2013, it would have taken a couple of more decades to accomplish this work. If we talk about providing smoke-free LPG gas connections to the poor and to the poor mothers, at the rate in which it was done in 2013, it could not have been completed even in 100 years. If we had maintained the speed of 2013 in laying an optical fibre network in villages, then we would not have been able to accomplish the task for generations together. We will strive to maintain the same pace of development.

“Take a glance at the vast canvas of the development in our country -- from one end to the other, one can witness the progress of the country that is moving ahead with new energy and enthusiasm. I hail from Gujarat. There is a saying in Gujarati, ‘Nishan Chuk Maaf Lekin Nahi Maaf Nichu Nishan’, which means one should have big aims and dreams. However, for that, one has to strive hard and be answerable. But if the aims are not big, targets are not far-sighted, decisions are also not taken. Development comes to a halt. That is why, my dear brothers and sisters, it is necessary for us to move ahead with big aims and resolve. When targets are vague, when the spirit is not strong, then important decisions in our social life also get held up for years.

“Take for instance the case of MSP – economists, farmer organizations, farmers as well as political parties had been demanding that farmers should get an MSP which is one and a half times their investment. The matter was debated for years, files moved to and fro, but were stuck. Finally, we took the decision. We took a bold decision of giving the farmers the MSP which is one and a half times their investment. “My dear brothers and sisters, we are not the kind of people who work in the interest of the party. We are capable of taking tough decisions because national interest is topmost in our priority.”

DIFFERENT STROKES

These then are the very first and the latest speeches of two Prime Ministers, the first on the day India got its independence by the country’s first Prime Minister, Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, and the second when the country celebrated its 75th Independence Day by the present PM Narendra Modi. Both the speeches reflect their respective personal traits. Nehru’s speech is an idealistic presentation of the vision of a statesman while Modi’s speech is the statement of a ‘power’ politician. While one is a remarkable piece of literature, the other is full of a personal sense of achievement. On the face of it, the problems before the country narrated by Pandit Nehru 75 years ago; viz., poverty, ignorance, disease and inequality of opportunity, are very much there even today.

What is more, the coronavirus pandemic has worsened the situation. Millions of people, including a sizeable number of youths, have been wandering jobless. Poverty has spread far and wide, with a sharp increase in the number of people below the poverty line. The phenomenon of unequality has scaled

a new peak in 2021 due to the health and economic fallouts of the Covid-19 crisis. While there is a huge spurt in the number of poor people, the total number of billionaires on the other hand rose to 140 from 102 a year ago, with their combined wealth doubling to $ 596 billion.

THE SUNNY SIDE

These are unpalatable facts but this does not mean that nothing has happened in India during the last seven and a half decades. The country has indeed made significant strides in the national and global arena as it aims for the $ 5 trillion GDP mark. This is thanks to the policies adopted by various governments all these years and the efforts made by entrepreneurs and industry leaders. Governments under most of the Prime Ministers have contributed immensely in development of the country by implementing initiatives for growth. Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru laid down a solid foundation on which a solid edifice could be built. Indira Gandhi and Lal Bahadur Shastri have contributed significantly with their policies. Narasimha Rao and Dr Manmohan Singh have changed the face of the country’s economy with revolutionary reforms. Rajiv Gandhi ushered in a modern era of the digital revolution. Narendra Modi initiated the ‘Make in India’ and ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ strategies. In short, the country has come a long way during the last 75 years.

No doubt, soon after independence, the pace of India’s growth was very slow. But then came the Green Revolution and the pace of growth started picking up. Afterall, it has emerged as the gamechanger for the country's economy.

After all, agriculture continues to be an important sector in the Indian economy as it has served as its backbone. In fact, agriculture has emerged as one of India’s biggest growth contributors over the past seven and a half decades. After all, it generates livelihoods for more than half the population. The real gross value added by the agriculture, forestry and allied sectors went up from around Rs 1,502 billion in 1950-51 to around Rs 22,263 billion in 2011-12. This has gone up further during the last nine years.

Since 1947, the country has recorded tremendous growth in income levels and standards of living. The gross domestic product (GDP) has shot up over 19 times from Rs 2,939 billion during 1950-51 to Rs. 56,330 billion during 2011-12. Thereafter, during the last 7 years, the GDP has skyrocketed to Rs 140,776 billion. At the same time, the average Indian citizen earned an income of just around Rs 7,513 in 1950-51, which jumped to Rs 41,255 during 2011-12 and further to Rs 92,565 during 2018- 19. By now, it has already crossed Rs 100,000.

THE GAME-CHANGERS

The Green Revolution was the first game-changer, pushing up foodgrains production from 48 million tonnes during the 1950s to a massive 308.65 million tonnes during the agricultural year 2021. The country faced a severe shortage of foodgrains in 1960 and many people had to live on inferior quality red wheat offered by the US under PL 480. Then came the life-saving Green Revolution.

Of course, it must be admitted that the Green Revolution was the brainchild of American agricultural scientist Norman Borlaug who started by revolutionising wheat production in Mexico. For his seminal work, Borlaug received the Nobel Prize in 1970. The Green Revolution spread throughout the world and in India was spearheaded by MS Swaminathan, renowned agricultural scientist and the then agriculture minister in the cabinet of Jawaharlal Nehru. The revolutionary exercise continued in the regime of Nehru's successor Lal Bahadur Shastri. The Green Revolution converted variety seeds, tractors, irrigation facilities, pesticides and fertilisers. Not only did we become the self-sufficient in foodgrains but we also started exporting our produce. Today, India has emerged as one of the largest producers of rice, wheat and various fruits and vegetables in the world.

Then came the White Revolution scripted by a farsighted Verghese Kurien. Thanks to this radical movement, there was a sea change in the dairy sector which introduced a co-operative approach in harnessing animal husbandry.

Middlemen were eliminated in the farmer-market supply chain and the enhanced milk production resulted in profits for dairy farmers. This revolution saw India emerge as the largest milk producer in the world.

Then, in 1991, the industry reforms initiated by the Narasimha Rao-Dr Manmohan Singh combine proved to be the second game- changer for the Indian economy.

END OF PERMIT RAJ

The Narasimha Rao-Manmohan Singh combine devised a new industrial policy in 1991 which constituted a major economic reform introduced to reinvigorate the industrial sector. The policy dismantled the system of industrial licensing, popularly known as the licence, quota, permit raj, and opened up the industrial sector for greater private sector participation as well as foreign investment. The outcome of the policy change was fantastic. Many sectors recorded a remarkable pace of growth. In the manufacturing segment, from just 3 automobile companies turning out a few outdated models, the automotive sector attracted global multinationals and built up a range of products of international quality. In pharmaceuticals, India has now emerged as a major producer and undertakes cutting-edge research to develop new drugs, which was only a distant dream earlier. Engineering and chemical machinery goods have evolved to global benchmarks as well. What is more, in real gross value added terms, the manufacturing, construction, electricity, gas and water supply sectors which stood at around Rs 401 million during 1950-51 are at present valued at around Rs 36,684 million.

In services, the industrial revolution led to new sectors like information technology, which has transformed the landscape, creating new opportunities such as e-commerce and opening the door to numerous start-ups. Today, India is one of the top players in IT services, with Indian software engineers basking in the limelight the world over. According to an expert, India has also made significant headway in infrastructure and has over the years established a robust transport network. The length of roads has increased from around 0.4 million km during the 1950s to around 5.9 million km post fiscal 2017. The length of national and state highways has also increased substantially, while the number of registered vehicles has zoomed from 0.31 million during 1950-51 to around 253 million during fiscal 2017. Civil aviation has also witnessed immense growth, with the number of passengers increasing from only 10.74 million in 1980-81 to an estimated 345 million during 2018-19.

ABUNDANT POWER

The country's power sector has diversified significantly and made substantial progress since independence. The total energy generated by the hydro, thermal and nuclear sectors has increased from only 5.1 billion kWh during 1950-51 to 1303.5 billion kWh during 2017-18. India has made remarkable progress in developing non-conventional energy sources like solar and wind power. The country has made remarkable progress on the export front also, developing a significant footprint globally. The value of exports of goods and services, which stood at just around $ 0.1 billion during 1950-51, has reached $ 330 billion during 2018-19. We are also a leading exporter of IT services.

India has not lagged behind in terms of improving its human development indicators. Literacy rates have shot up from 18.3 per cent during the 1950s to 52 per cent during 1990s, further to 73 per cent during 2011 and has now crossed 85 per cent. The growth in other social economic indicators is also praiseworthy. The gross enrolment ratio in schools has gone up substantially and there has been an impressive spurt in the number of recognized educational institutes, including schools, colleges and science, medical, engineering and management institutes during the last 75 years. There has been a remarkable improvement in basic facilities. Households' access to safe drinking water at the all-India level has improved from 81.4 per cent during 1991 to 91.4 per cent in 2011, and further to 95 per cent by now.

There is a noticeable improvement in the direction of making the country open defecation-free by encouraging construction of toilets at the household level.

WHITHER NEXT 25 YEARS?

No doubt, India has come a long way after independence on August 15, 1947, but the outlook for the next 25 years is uncertain as of late the country has suffered a severe setback. To begin with, the demonetisation of high-currency notes by the Narendra Modi government jhas inflicted a big blow to the economy, with hundreds of small and medium enterprises losing their businesses and number of people losing their jobs. Even as the country was trying to recover from the adverse impact of such an unwarranted and unimaginative step, the Covid-19 pandemic administered a big blow to the economy and the lives of the people.

However, reforms have continued -- though at a slow pace - - with the introduction of the landmark Goods and Service Tax, the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code and the 'Ease of Doing Business', among others. All these measures promise to contribute to a growing economy and spur further growth. But the coronavirus has administered a huge setback from which it will take a lot of time for the economy to recover. As the country's health infrastructure was overwhelmed, nearly half a million Indians have lost their lives to the deadly virus, while due to lockdowns and closures millions have lost their jobs. People have not only depleted their savings but the costly treatment for Covid-19 has also adversely affected the social and family life of many.

This has in turn tarnished the aura of the Modi dispensation. There is a tremendous responsibility on the current government to handle the situation carefully and skillfully. It needs to concentrate on reviving the economy and economic life of the people instead of wasting time on irrelevant agendas. If the government does not wake up to the clear and present dangers, it will do immense harm to the country, the country's economy and the country's age-old social fabric. And finally, with the dark clouds of the Wuhan virus continuing to loom over India over the past nearly two years, it remains to be seen whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi's much-touted vision of a $ 5 trillion economy for India by 2025 can come about.

Despite Covid, India can become a US$ 5 trillion economy – PM Modi

Despite the problems including the setback on account of the Covid-19 pandemic, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is hopeful that India can still achieve the $5 trillion economy target by 2024.

In an interview, the PM has said that India is on its way towards an economic recovery as shown by 5 indicators — record production and procurement in agriculture, record FDI inflows, demand resurgence as shown by growth in auto and tractor sales, improvement in manufacturing and addition to the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) subscriber base, showing an improvement in the job market. In addition, all-time high foreign exchange reserves as well as improvement in indicators like freight movement indicate broad based recovery.

He insists, “Today, our country is optimistic of the future, it is optimistic of reaching the $5 trillion target. And this optimism gives us confidence. So what if we could not move at the desired pace this year due to the pandemic! We will try and run faster in the next year to make up for the loss. Nothing great ever gets done if we get deterred by obstacles in our path. By not aspiring, we guarantee failure.”

“India is the third largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity. We want India to become the third largest in terms of current US dollar prices as well. The $5 trillion target will help us achieve that.” “Also, our government has a track record of meeting our targets,” he boasts.

The size of the Indian economy was around $2.7-2.8 trillion as of March 2020. Even before the pandemic, economists had termed it almost impossible for India to become a $5 trillion economy by 2024 as GDP growth slowed down to 4.2 per cent in 2019-20, much lower than the double digit growth needed to achieve the target. The pandemic has made matters worse with the economy expected to contract by double digits in the current fiscal.

Pointing out that the labour and agricultural reforms undertaken by my government in the last couple of months will help increase growth and returns in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors” he adds “this will be besides sending positive signals to the world about India’s intent.”

Terming the labour reforms as ‘pro-worker’, Modi maintained that the simplified labour codes will lead to a stable regime for businesses to invest and create a win-win situation for the employee and the employer.

The government will take all measures needed to constantly stimulate the economy in a timely manner while ensuring overall macroeconomic stability. The government’s big push towards investment and infrastructure will be the driving force behind economic recovery.

Citing data from Moody’s, Mr. Modi points out how 154 greenfield projects from the US have come to India in 2020, compared to 86 in China, 12 in Vietnam and 15 in Malaysia. “This is a clear indication of global confidence in India’s growth story going forward. We have laid strong foundations to make India the foremost manufacturing destination.” Highlighting as to how India has been doing well in containing the pandemic, Mr. Modi points out how India’s case fatality ratio is among the lowest in the world and the deaths per million much lower than what is seen in many developed nations.

India’s case fatality rate is around 1.5 per cent and deaths per million is around 86. India’s economy is not only showing signs of recovery but also positive indicators of high growth rate, he says confidently.

However, critics who doubt about Mr. Modi’s optimistic statement comment that Mr.Modi has been uttering the same for the last seven years. Quips one critic “he may continue to say this even after 2024.”