Editorial     

Inflation booms, govt dozes

Under the pretext of focusing all its energies on tackling Covid-19 and the host of problems created by the pandemic, the Union government has turned a deaf ear to the other serious problems facing the economy. Perhaps the most prominent of these is the runaway inflationary price spiral.

During the month of May, the headline number for retail inflation has surged to a sixmonth high of 6.3 per cent -- above the upper limit of the Reserve Bank of India's inflation band of 2 to 6 per cent -- for the first time after 5 consecutive months of remaining within the band.

The surge in the headline number has been broad-based as each component of the CPI basket has witnessed an uptick in the yoy growth number as compared with the previous year. Food has spurted to a six-month high and fuel has surpassed even its 9-year high. Significantly, core inflation ,which had remained sticky throughout fiscal 2021, has now inched up to its highest level in the past seven years.

Interestingly, this time retail inflation is in line with the wholesale price rise. The WPI has inched up to a record high of 12.9 per cent in May 2021, from 10.5 per cent in April 2021 and a deflation of 3.4 per cent in May 2020. The surge in wholesale inflation is mainly due to the sharp increase in fuel and power prices, which have zoomed to their highest level in the 2011- 12 base period series. Again, elevated prices in the manufacturing segment are indicative of the strengthening purchasing power of manufacturers. Higher factory gate prices in the manufacturing segment are representative of firmness in the pricing power of corporates.

Interestingly, the inflationary price spiral has been raging in a period when the economy is in bad shape with a sharp slide in the pace of growth. Unfortunately, the spurt in inflation has come at a time when people, especially the middle- and lower-income groups, have been hit hard on account of widespread job losses, reduced salaries and fears of a third wave of the coronavirus. The unprecedented spurt in prices of essential commodities like food, edible oils and pulses, and the spurt in prices of LPG, has imposed an additional burden on the budget of the common man.

Of course, one of the major factors behind the surge in inflation is the steep rebound of crude oil prices, which in turn has pushed up prices of petrol and diesel to unheard-of levels, not only in India but throughout the world. Unfortunately, the government has been keeping mum while large sections of Indians are being crushed under the heavy burden of high prices.

It is really intriguing that the Narendra Modi government has taken edible oils out of the list of essential commodities, leading to edible oil prices seeing a spike of 35 to 70 per cent. Rising prices and government apathy have made the lives of the masses miserable. Indians by and large have never seen such miserable conditions in the past, according to old-timers. They think back with nostalgia to the extremely affordable conditions of 70 years ago, something that today's younger generation would find hard to believe.

Unfortunately, the retail inflation data also shows that rural inflation continues to remain high at 6.5 per cent while urban inflation is at 6 per cent. This is indeed a cause of concern for the well-being of a majority of the country's population.

The unprecedented surge in inflation has posed a stiff challenge for the RBI, which is already battling to put growth back on track. The country's central bank now faces the unenviable dilemma of whether to target growth or the inflationary spiral! Over the past few months, the Modi-led BJP government has gone into hyper-drive in fighting elections across the country. Will it, or can it, do a reality check even at this late hour and show the same determination and drive in tackling the challenge of unbridled inflation which is sounding the death knell for the common man?

written by

Deven Malkan

Cover story     

Booming Metals: Will Buoyancy Sustain?

The global metals sector, like most other economic segments, was seriously impacted by the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020. But incredibly, it bounced back with a bang and was ruling the stock market roost till as recently as March this year (Nifty Metal shot up by 150 per cent from 1,585.90 on March 31, 2020 to 3,963 on March 31, 2021).

Corporate Grapevine         

What’s behind roller What’s behind roller-coaster ride of Adani group scrips?

Will the stock market be hit by the Adani scandal? Or are the rumours and reports that have become the talk of Dalal Street meant to “deliberately mislead the investing community”, as has been alleged by the Adani group?

Chandra's 2nd inning hinges on online foray

Tata group chairman N Chandrasekaran has started a new venture — Tata Digital – which he hopes will make a splash in online retailing. With this, the Tatas plan to take on established players such as Amazon, Flipkart and Reliance Retail.

Spokes in Piramal’s DHFL acquisition

Ajay Piramal’s acquisition of DHFL is not going as per plan. The former promoter of DHFL, Kapil Wadhawan, has moved the Supreme Court with his own offer for the company. Wadhawan is currently in jail and lawyers say the SC will reject his petition, taking into account the huge holes found in DHFL’s books.

Is ILFS ex-chief’s arrest good news for lenders?

After almost four years of IL&FS going bankrupt, its former chairman Ravi Parthasarathy has been arrested by the Chennai police. The entire top brass of IL&FS was earlier arrested by the Enforcement Directorate but Parthasarathy was not touched.

Expert Opinion     

Markets take Covid in their stride

The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has destabilized the country’s medical infrastructure, leaving citizens scrambling helplessly for oxygen and hospital beds. Economic activity has also started to feel the pinch. If things go downhill from here, India’s already fragile and uneven economic recovery may take a massive hit in the first quarter of this fiscal year (April-June 2021), signs of which are visible through some leading economic indicators.

Special Report     

COTTON CORPORATION OF INDIA: Friend of growers, ally of textile mills

Very rarely does one come across a business entity that has been set up to protect the interests of both producer and consumer. Cotton Corporation of India is the rare exception. Its brief being to cater to the needs of both cotton farmers and domestic textile mills. It saves the cotton farmers from distress sales when there is a lukewarm response from private buyers due to depressed market conditions by buying their produce at the MSP.

Captains Speak         

Chennai Petroleum Corporation

“Focused investments, interventions and actions taken in the second half of 2020 towards brand-building with increased marketing and advertising spends, and new product introductions as well as corrective pricing aided by improving demand trends, especially in tractor and SUV sales, have had a positive impact on overall topline growth of Castrol India in Q1FY21, notes Sandeep Sangwan, Managing Director.

Castrol India

Chennai Petroelum Corporation (CPCL) is setting up a 9 million mtpa refinery at its existing facility at Nagapattinam in Tamil Nadu, the foundation stone for which was laid by Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently. The proposed refinery-cum-petrochemical complex will produce petrol and diesel meeting BS-VI specifications and polypylene as a value-added product. “Around 80% of the requirements for the refinery will be sourced indigenously,” says Rajeev Ailawadi, Director (Finance) and incharge Managing Director.

Looking Glass     

FERTILISER: Fertiliser stocks riding govt’s subsidy sop

Following up on its recent strategy to woo the farm sector, the government has hiked the total fertiliser subsidy for fiscal 2022 by Rs 14,775 crore. The government’s decision follows (a) the countrywide farmers’ stir which has caused serious concern to the government and the ruling BJP; (b) the rise in fertiliser prices in the wake of rising agricultural incomes driving demand for fertilisers worldwide.

Economy     

INFLATIONARY PRICE SPIRAL: WPI at record high of 12.9%

Wholesale inflation has inched up to a record high of 12.9% in May 2021 from 10.5% in April 2021 and 3.4% deflation in May 2020. CARE Ratings had estimated WPI at 11.1% during the month. The uptick in inflation during the month can be ascribed to the sharp increase in fuel and power prices, which have risen to the highest level in the 2011-12 base period series. Moreover, elevated prices in the manufacturing segment are indicative of the strengthening purchasing power of manufacturers. Prices in the food segment have softened marginally during the month.

Market Winds         

Rail Vikas Nigam
(BSE Code 542649)

A research analyst working with a mutual fund recommends investment in Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd (RVNL), a wholly owned subsidiary of Indian Railways which is involved in building rail infrastructure. RVNL is an offshoot of the National Rail Vikas Yojana announced from the rampants of Red Fort on August 15, 2002 by the then Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and became fully functional in March 2005.

IndusInd Bank
(BSE Code 532187)

A brokerage house is bullish on IndusInd Bank which has turned out a heart-warming performance in the second Covid-19 year. Having suffered a moderate setback in fiscal 2020 on account of the Covid-19 pandemic, the bank is moving gradually through uncertainties and has put up a highly encouraging show for fiscal 2021. Net interest income has risen from Rs 120,567 crore in fiscal 2021 but the profit at net level has declined from Rs 44,179 crore to Rs 28,374 crore.

Time Technoplast
(BSE Code 532856)

The equity research wing of a stock broking entity of a leading bank is bullish on Time Technoplast, a small-cap company engaged in the manufacture of plastic products including products for industrial packaging, infrastructure, technical, material handling and composite cylinders

Ambuja Cement
(BSE Code 500425)

A research analyst working with a securities company of a leading bank favours investment in Ambuja Cement, a leading cement company which is riding on an ambitious expansion programme. The company has chalked out a plan for jacking up its manufacturing capacity from the current level of 29.7 million tonnes to 50 million tonnes.

J.K. Paper
(BSE Code 532162)

An independent research analyst tracking the paper sector among others recommends investment in JK Paper, a leading player in office papers, located papers and packaging papers. Its packaging board and official documentation products include JK Copier Plus, JK Copier, JK Easy Copier, JK Cmax, JK Cedar, JK Excel Bond and JK Ledger. Its uncoated and board products include JK Cote, JK Super Cote, JK Cote Premium and JK Coated Chromo, JK Ultima, JK Tuffcote, JK Tuff Pack, JK Endura and JK Club Card.

HDFC Bank
(BSE Code 500180)

A former banker (ex-executive director of a leading nationalized bank) and now a research analyst tracking the finance and banking sector advises investors not to get distracted by the revenue of Rs 5,753 crore in Q4FY2021, which is 56 per cent higher compared to the same quarter a year ago.

HCL Technologies
(BSE Code 532281)

A knowledgeable HNI (high networth investor) who has been accumulating HCL Technologies in his portfolio of information technology stocks advises not to be disheartened by its poor performance during Q4FY20. Terming this as a temporary setback, he insists that the trend will undergo a subtle change going ahead and there will be strong revenue growth during fiscal 2022 with base growth of double digits, which along with strong TCV data implies potential for much wider growth for the year.

Portfolio Choice         

HINDUSTAN UNILEVER - Huge portfolio, reach & recall

Hindustan Unilever, the undisputed market leader in the FMCG space, has a vast essentials portfolio and enjoys market leadership in most of the categories it is present in — with a high brand recall especially in the home and personal care business. The company is rated among the best-managed companies in the country. It has a strong balance sheet and is expected to scale new highs going ahead.

PERSISTENT SYSTEMS - ‘Persistence’ in core areas pays off

Pune-headquartered Persistent Systems is a global IT company specialising in software products, services and technology innovation. It offers services across all stages of the product life cycle. Widely recognized as one of the leading technology companies in the Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Technology Fast 500 Asia-Pacific 2009, the company is a digital engineering and enterprise modernisation partner, combining deep technical expertise and industry experience to help its clients anticipate ‘what next’ and answer questions before they’re asked.

CORDS CABLE INDUSTRIES - Expanding the world of cables

Cords Cable Industries, a small cap company, designs, develops and manufactures a varied range of power, control, instrumentation, thermocouple extension/compensating and communication cables. Its instrumentation, control and power cables find applications across industries; viz; power, oil & gas, hydrocarbons, fertilizers, metal & cement, airports, railways, metro rail and smart cities, amongst others.

February 15, 2025 - First Issue

Industry Review

VOL XVI - 10
February 01-15, 2025

Formerly Fortune India Managing Editor Deven Malkan Assistant Editor A.K. Batha President Bhupendra Shah Circulation Executive Warren Sequeira Art Director Prakash S. Acharekar Graphic Designer Madhukar Thakur Investment Analysis CI Research Bureau Anvicon Research DD Research Bureau Manager (Special Projects) Bhagwan Bhosale Editorial Associates New Delhi Ranjana Arora Bureau Chief Kolkata Anirbahn Chawdhory Gujarat Pranav Brahmbhatt Bureau Cheif Mobile: 098251-49108 Bangalore Jaya Padmanabhan Bureau Chief Chennai S Gururajan Bureau Chief (Tamil Nadu) Ludhiana Ajitkumar Vijh Bhubaneshwar Braja Bandhu Behera

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