Portfolio Choice  123    15   

Published: Aug 29, 2019
Updated: Aug 29, 2019

TATA CHEMICALS
BSE ticker code 500770
NSE ticker code TATACHEM
Major activity Chemicals
Managing Director N. Chandrasekharan
Equity capital Rs. 254.82 crore; FV Rs. 10
52 week high/low Rs. 793 / Rs. 197
CMP Rs. 748.10
Market Capitalisation Rs. 19058.32 crore
Recommendation Buy at declines
New biz on back of cash cows

Tata Chemicals, a prestigious member of the Tata group, is an eight- decade-old commodity player which is now engaged in an exercise to reinvent itself as a speciality and consumer products company. At present, the company has a diversified portfolio of businesses which include soda ash and sodium bicarbonate fertilisers (which it is exiting from), agricultural inputs (though subsidiary Rallis India), consumer products such as branded iodised salt, pulses and spices, and a fledging speciality products business in materials like highly dispersible silica (HDS) and nano material as well as nutritional products like polyols. It has sizeable financial investments and can liquidate as per its requirements. Prospects for the company are extraordinary once it completes its reinventing exercise.

Consider:

  • The company is an undisputed leader in the global market for soda ash and sodium bicarbonate. These are literally cash cows and are steadily growing at a rate of around 4 per cent every year. These cash cows are being successfully used to build growth businesses such as consumer and speciality products.
  • In fact, the company is rolling in liquidity, generating massive cash of around Rs 40 billion via divestment of the regulated fertilizer business and sale of investments, coupled with steady accruals from the soda ash business. This would enable the company to move in the direction of a debt-free status very soon.
  • Experts calculate that as the company scales up its growth businesses and deleverages its balance sheet, its consolidated ROCE will improve substantially, in turn driving a stock re-rating.
  • Divestment of the fertilizer business and sale of Tata Global Beverages shares would result in cumulative gross cash inflows of Rs 40 billion. Internal accruals would add further to cash flows.
  • The company is also focusing on working capital which has brought down the requirement by Rs 21 billion in just two years. Strong cash flows have allowed the company to reduce its debt and also enable the management to invest in manufacturing facilities for new materials like HDS and nano material, and nutritional solutions.
  • Salt is growing as a leading money spinner for the company. The estimated annual consumption of salt in the country is around 6 million tonnes and demand for edible salt is growing at a rate of 1.5 per cent.

PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (Rs. in crore)

Year Net Sales Net Profit EPS (Rs.) Div (%) BV (%) RONW (%)
2018-19 21708.17 4676.61 18.2 50.00 259.27 7.01
2019-20 25206.2 1627.22 5.8 0.00 301.05 1.57
2020-21(E) 28309.81 3701.10 13.1 50.00 313.17 3.21
2021-22(E) 33191.05 7268.19 25.8 55.00 337.72 6.98
One-stop shop for cables
BSE ticker code 517569
NSE ticker code KEI
Major activity Insulated wire and cables
Chairman Anil Gupta
Equity capital Rs. 17.97 crore; FV Rs. 2
52 week high/low Rs. 530 / Rs. 208
CMP Rs. 494.15
Market Capitalisation Rs. 4440.21 crore
Recommendation Buy at declines
KEI INDUSTRIES

Headquartered in New Delhi, KEI Industries offers an extensive range of cabling solutions. It manufactures and markets Extra-High Voltage (EHV), Medium Voltage (MV) and Low Voltage (LV) power cables, and serves both retail and institutional segments. During the last halfcentury, it has emerged as a onestop shop for products and services, with its growing presence in the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) services domain further strengthening its leadership position. Prospects are bullish.

Consider:

  • The company currently operates through five manufacturing facilities strategically located in the northern and western parts of the country — Bhiwadi, Chopanki, Pathrediare in Rajasthan, and Rakholi and Chinchpada (Silvassa) in Dadra & Nagar Haveli — so as to serve institutional clients efficiently across the country as well as to be closer to markets. Over five decades of experience in the cable industry have enabled the company to build a diverse market presence with significant revenue coming from exports, institutional and retail segments. The revenue generated under the retail, institutional and export segments was Rs 1,092.22 crore (around 30% of sales), Rs 1,921.66 crore (around 52% of sales) and Rs 650.50 crore (around 18% of sales) respectively in the nine months ended Dec 31, 2019.
  • The retail segment comprises house wires, winding and flexible wires, LT power cables and HT cables. KEI has been expanding its distribution network to increase its retail sales. Its dealer and distributor base as of Dec 31, 2019 stand at 1,602, up from 1,450 as of March 31, 2019 and 1,284 as of March 2018. Of the 1,602 authorized dealers and distributors, about 548 are from North India, 329 from South India, 376 from East India and 349 from West India. The institutional business segment, which accounts for a majority of its revenue as of March 2019, comprises EHV cables, EPC (engineering, procurement and construction) business, LT power cables and HT cables. The company over the years has developed a strong relationship with reputed public and private sector customers such as Power Grid Corporation of India, L&T and Bharat Heavy Electricals. The export business also comprises LT power cables, HT cables and EHV cables, with a continued focus on the oil & gas and other infrastructure-focused sectors. The company also manufactures stainless steel wires and provides EPC services within the export business segment

Hit hard by the pandemic in the first half of the current fiscal, the company is on the revival path. It has seen strong business revival in Q3 aided by higher demand. The company has also seen improved margins due to higher utilisation and cost control. The cables business which accounts for 75 percent of revenues has seen its quarterly revenues reach pre-Covid levels. While the engineering business is moving slowly, opportunities in the segment are opening up because of the government’s focus on infrastructure. The company has an order book of close to Rs 2,611 crore, which is about 50 per cent of the annual consolidated revenue. The management expects to end FY 2021 with flat or marginally lower sales, which will be commendable considering the lockdown due to Covid. On enhanced equity post the QIP, we expect the company to register a standalone EPS of Rs 36.4 for FY21 and Rs 42.5 for FY22. The scrip trades at Rs 495, which discounts the projected FY21 EPS around 9.9 times. The company’s foray into FMEG (fast moving electrical goods) will give a further boost to its valuation.

CONSOLIDATED PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (Rs. in crore)

Year Net Sales Net Profit EPS (Rs.) Div (%) BV (%) RONW (%)
2018-19 4226.96 181.87 20.3 60.00 98.69 28.67
2019-20 5073.35 271.23 30.3 75.00 127.49 NA
2020-21(E) 4468.86 219.31 24.5 65.00 168.9 29.21
2021-22(E) 5001.15 286.91 32.1 70.00 203.8 29.56
Recovering from Covid slump
BSE ticker code 500292
NSE ticker code HEIDELBERG
Major activity Cement
Managing Director Jamshed Naval Cooper
Equity capital Rs. 226.62 crore; FV Rs. 10
52 week high/low Rs. 245 / Rs 120
CMP Rs. 230
Market Capitalisation Rs. 5212.10 crore
Recommendation Buy at declines
HEIDELBERG CEMENT INDIA

Heidelberg Cement India, a 69.4% subsidiary of the Heidelberg Cement group, was born in 2009 after the German cement major acquired Indorama Cement and Mysore Cement and merged them into one with a capacity of 3 million tonnes per annum. Soon the company undertook a brownfield capacity expansion in central India to raise the capacity to 5.4 mtpa. Today, the company has two integrated plants at Imlai in Damoh (Madhya Pradesh) and Jhansi (Uttar Pradesh), and one grinding unit at Ammasandra (Karnataka). The company is on the growth path.

Consider:

  • The German group acquired a major stake in leading global cement company Italcementi SPA and now has a presence in more than 60 countries. As Italcementi has a presence in India through its 100% subsidiary, Zuari Cement, the Heidleberg group now has two cement companies (HCI and Zuari), one catering to central India and the other mainly to south India. Heidelberg Cement India (HCI) has the advantage of technical support from its giant parent.
  • On account of good demand for the company’s cement in central India, both plants of HCI are working at over 90%. With an aim to achieve better operational efficiency and increase productivity, the company is now debottlenecking its cement grinding capacities in Imlai and Jhansi at a total investment Rs 20.7 crore, which is being met through internal accruals. This will raise the grinding capacity to 6.26 mtpa. It is also exploring inorganic expansion and is scouting for a limestone mine to augment its existing limestone mine.
  • The demand for cement, which had suffered a setback in much of fiscal 2020 on account of macro weakness, has started improving from the last quarter of 2020. Improvement in demand momentum across the country is likely to sustained in the coming months, as the government has started giving a push to infrastructure in order to revive a sagging economy that was further ravaged by Covid.
  • Crude prices have corrected massively in the last few months on account of the Covid scare. This decline in crude prices is likely to drive power and fuel costs down, and savings can flow in from the increased proportion of power generation through waste heat recovery, optimisation of lead distance and product mix.
  • The company reported a 32% yoy decline in volume at 0.86mn mt. It lost almost the entire production in April due to the lockdown. The central and eastern regions in India witnessed substantial improvement in demand and were expected to report better volume growth compared to other regions. However, the company’s volume growth seems lower considering the regional volume trends. Realization growth is at 1.7% qoq.
  • Prospects for the company are expected to improve in the coming months. The cement sector is an indirect beneficiary of higher government spending towards infrastructure, highways, housing and rural development. Overall, next year’s demand is likely to be better than the current year, but due to lower capacity utilization growth may not be much. Increased cost savings may continue to support higher profitability.
  • The company has no major plan for capex except maintenance capex, which will be Rs. 0.5 bn for FY21. The greenfield plant in the western region has been kept on hold due to the lockdown and lower availability of manpower in government offices.

For FY 2021, the management expects an uncertain outlook due to Covid, and hopes to optimise operational and capital expenditure. On an equity of Rs 226.62 crore and face value of Rs 10 per share, EPS for FY21 works out to Rs 10.9. The scrip trades at Rs 230. P/E on the FY 21 estimated EPS works out to 17.

PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (Rs. in crore)

Year Net Series Net Profit EPS (Rs.) Div (%) BV (%) RONW (%)
2017-18 1889.47 133.18 5.9 25.00 46.17 13.23
2018-19 2133.35 220.66 9.7 45.00 51.7 19.90
2019-20 2169.62 268.06 11.8 60.00 58.0 NA
2020-21(E) 2321.89 279.89 12.4 40.00 66.4 17.86
2021-22(E) 2542.24 311.09 13.7 60.00 74.1 18.41

February 15, 2025 - First Issue

Industry Review

VOL XVI - 10
February 01-15, 2025

Formerly Fortune India Managing Editor Deven Malkan Assistant Editor A.K. Batha President Bhupendra Shah Circulation Executive Warren Sequeira Art Director Prakash S. Acharekar Graphic Designer Madhukar Thakur Investment Analysis CI Research Bureau Anvicon Research DD Research Bureau Manager (Special Projects) Bhagwan Bhosale Editorial Associates New Delhi Ranjana Arora Bureau Chief Kolkata Anirbahn Chawdhory Gujarat Pranav Brahmbhatt Bureau Cheif Mobile: 098251-49108 Bangalore Jaya Padmanabhan Bureau Chief Chennai S Gururajan Bureau Chief (Tamil Nadu) Ludhiana Ajitkumar Vijh Bhubaneshwar Braja Bandhu Behera

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