Portfolio Choice  123    15   

Published: Aug 29, 2019
Updated: Aug 29, 2019

NESTLÉ INDIA
BSE ticker code 500790
NSE ticker code NESTLEIND
Major activity FMGC (Packaged Foods)
Managing Director Suresh Narayanan
Equity capital Rs. 96.42 crore; FV Rs. 10
52 week high/low Rs. 18822 / Rs. 15104
CMP Rs. 16699.00
Market Capitalisation Rs. 161004.60 crore
Recommendation Buy at declines
Revenues, profits continue to soar

Nestlé India is the Indian subsidiary of Swiss multinational Nestlé SA, the largest food company in the world with a strong brand portfolio in the packaged food and beverages space. Thanks to their excellent quality, many products of the company are highly popular and many of them have become household names, including Maggie noodles, Nescafé, Nestlé milk, KitKat, Munch, Milkmaid and Nescafé Sunshine. The company is doing extremely well and prospects ahead are all the more highly promising.

Consider:

  • The company’s products are rated very high in quality. Little wonder that even during the last 15 months of the pandemic, its products have been meeting with very good demand, leading to double digit growth in several key products. In fact, the pandemic has pushed up the demand for the company’s products. The second Covid wave has led to localised lockdowns, which in turn will help the company achieve better growth at a time when consumers are shifting to trusted brands.
  • The company has a strong presence across India, with manufacturing facilities located at Moga in Punjab, Choladi in Tamil Nadu, Samalkha in Haryana, Nanjangud in Karnataka, Ponda and Bicholim in Goa, and Pantnagar in Uttarakhand. It also has four branch offices in the four metros – Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai and Kolkata — to help facilitate the sales and marketing of its products. With its facilities spread all over the country, the company has adopted a cluster-based distribution strategy by remapping India into 15 clusters, apart from decentralisation which has empowered the factories and sales locations in decision-making.
  • At present the company is concentrating on the urban sector for pushing up its pace of growth, with the sector accounting for around 75 per cent of revenues. Now, the management has decided to penetrate the rural sector – which contributes only 25 per cent to revenues — in order to quicken the pace of growth. During the last 18 months, the company has doubled its reach from 45,000 villages to 90,000. Realising that there are tremendous growth prospects in the rural sector on account of rising incomes and expanding expectations, the company has decided to reach 1,20,000 villages by 2024.
  • Known for its innovation and premiumisation of its products, the company is continuously launching new products. During the last two years, it has launched as many as 60 new products with a 70 per cent success rate. In view of its rural penetration drive, the company is keen to launch products like upma, poha and breakfast cereals. The company is on the verge of launching 40 new products but is not in hurry to introduce them immediately on account of the pandemic. The new products are expected to sustain the pace of growth of the company.
  • In most of its key products, the company enjoys a dominant position in the market despite growing competition. The popular Maggie noodles segment was hard hit during the crisis in 2015, when the company literally lost its total marketshare. But thanks to the high quality and remarkable taste of the Nestlé product, coupled with the imaginative and effective steps taken by Managing Director Suresh Narayanan, the company has succeeded in recovering lost ground during the last six years and today enjoys a hefty 60 per cent marketshare, despite frantic efforts by Hind Unilever, Patanjali, ITC and Marico. Though ITC has succeeded in capturing the second position, the others are nowhere in the race today. Nestlé has won the battle thanks to the taste of the product, advertising campaigns, differentiation and its distribution reach.
  • The company has joined the new distribution avenue of e-commerce. With 70 per cent of its portfolio being urban, Nestlé is well-placed to capture the e-commerce boom, resumption in modern trade and out-of-home consumption. The company is looking at the opportunity to close the gap with a few other FMCG players for whom e-commerce makes up 5 to 6 per cent of sales, through the introduction of digital-only products, a focus on digital marketing and meeting new consumption needs. In fact, it is believed that the company’s portfolio is among the most suited to e-commerce. The current lockdown and the resultant work-from-home culture is expected to boost consumption of Nestlé’s offerings, especially cooking aids, noodles, pasta, coffee, sauces and milk products.
  • The company is going from strength to strength on the financial front. During the last five years, its revenues have expanded from Rs 9,224 crore in calendar year 2016 to Rs 13,350 crore in 2020, with the profit at the net level taking a huge jump from Rs 926.54 crore to Rs 2082.43 crore during the same period. The company’s financial position is very strong, with reserves at the end of December 2020 standing at Rs 1,923 crore against an equity capital of Rs 96.42 crore, that too after four bonus issues (3:5 in 1983, 1:1 in 1986, 3:5 in 1989, 1:4 in 1993 and 1:2 in 1996). The company has been paying hefty dividends, the rate for the last year being 900 per cent.

The company has started the new year (2021) on a buoyant note. With sales turnover registering a 10.7 per cent growth in Q1 CY2021 at Rs 3,111 crore, the company has earned a 13.1 per cent higher net profit at Rs 603 crore. We expect an EPS of Rs 325 for the full year. The stock is now quoted around Rs 16,538.

PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (Rs. in crore)

Year Net Sales Net Profit EPS (Rs.) Div (%) BV (%) RONW (%)
2018-19 11292.77 1606.00 166.70 1150.00 381.00 45.30
2019-20 13350.03 2082.43 216.00 2000.00 209.40 105.76
2020-21(E) 15000.00 2390.00 240.00 2100.00 210.00 109.40
2021-22(E) 16500.00 2590.00 270.00 2150.00 215.00 112.30
INDUS TOWERS
BSE ticker code 534816
NSE ticker code INDUSTOWER
Major activity Telecom Services
Chairman Narayanan Kumar
Equity capital Rs. 2694.90 crore; FV Rs. 10
52 week high/low Rs. 282 / Rs. 161
CMP Rs. 252.45
Market Capitalisation Rs. 68033.68 crore
Recommendation Buy at declines
Riding surge in data expansion

Indus Towers, formed by the merger of Bharti Infratel with Indus Towers, has emerged as the largest tower company in the world outside China. The company has a nationwide presence with operations in all 22 telecom circles in India and as on March 2021, it owns and operates 179,225 towers and 322,438 co-locations, enabling communication for millions of people daily. The company provides towers’ access primarily on a wireless basis under long-term contracts. Its leading customers are Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Idea and Reliance Jio Infocom. Prospects for the company are highly encouraging.

Consider:

  • The merger has proved highly beneficial to the company as it will now control more than a third of the tower industry in the country. Again, with the amalgamation, the merged company will save close to Rs 500 crore annually. The merger has doubled the sales turnover to Rs 13,951 crore and the net profit to Rs 3,338.20 crore in fiscal year 2021 over the previous year. Experts believe that Indus will become a Rs 25,000-crore sales company within the next five years or so.
  • Enthused by the merger, the well-known brokerage house CLSA has given the company a ‘buy’ rating, saying the mobile tower company has added the highest number of towers last year and has an upside potential to grow in valuation. Again, the company’s anchor tenants reported data tariff growth of 46 per cent yoy in the first three quarters of fiscal 2021. CLSA forecast Indus’s EBIDTA growth at 5 per cent. And if its current momentum continues, its fiscal 2023 growth will be at 10 per cent besides a 5 per cent yield that will be highest among peers.
  • The company is moving fast towards 5G and the race towards this goal will make the infrastructure space even more relevant. The market is poised for three robust and sound telecom operators competing with each other in this space.
  • The 5G opportunity will be carried out in three phases: the initial phase would be the loading requirement and the second growth phase would cover the requirement of densification and inner coverage. The last phase would constitute the rollout of mission-critical services, potentially driving demand for data centres. Indus can play a big part in this.
  • Indus Tower’s CEO Bimal Dayal admits that new spectrum will be deployed and the great network activity which takes place is a very good stimulant for the company. In the coming days, “the space we operate in will become more and more relevant,” adds Mr Dayal. The company is now revalidating its growth strategy and believes future growth is hinged on small cells, smart cities fibre, WIFI, data centres and the macro tower business.
  • The pace with which data expansion is taking place provides ample growth opportunities for tower companies. Of late, India continues to witness strong data growth trends with industry-wide data volumes spurting 25-30 per cent yoy (in the first half of fiscal 2020)
  • The company is doing quite well on the financial front. After the merger in November 2020, the company’s shape and size have undergone a dramatic change. The sales turnover, which was hovering around Rs 6,000-6,800 crore for the previous 5 years, has almost doubled to Rs 13,951 crore in fiscal 2021. The net profit, which had declined from Rs 2,750 crore in fiscal 2017 to Rs 1,746 crore in fiscal 2020, has jumped to Rs 3,338 crore in fiscal 2021. The company’s financial position has become stronger, with reserves at the end of March 2021 standing at Rs 12,031 crore, more than 4 times the equity capital of Rs 2,695 crore. The new company declared a bumper dividend of 178 per cent. Prospects ahead are all the more promising.

Shares of the company are quoted around Rs 250/255, its EPS for fiscal 2021 amounting to Rs 12.39. We expect the EPS for the current year to be over Rs 14.50 per share.

CONSOLIDATED PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (Rs. in crore)

Year Net Sales Net Profit EPS (Rs.) Div (%) BV (%) RONW (%)
2018-2019 6821.70 2779.00 15.00 150.00 82.00 14.22
2019-2020 20100.00 3779.00 14.00 201.00 65.70 21.50
2020-2021(E) 25000.00 4170.00 17.00 215.00 55.82 22.40
2021-2022(E) 27000.00 4800.00 19.00 220.00 60.73 23.15
HIMACHAL FUTURISTIC COMMUNICATIONS
BSE ticker code 500183
NSE ticker code HFCL
Major activity Telecom Services
Managing Director Mahendra Nahata
Equity capital Rs. 128.44 crore; FV Re. 01
52 week high/low Rs. 39 / Rs. 8
CMP Rs. 35.90
Market Capitalisation Rs. 4610.91 crore
Recommendation Buy at declines
Performing its way out of controversy

Himachal Futuristic Communications Ltd (HFCL), a three-decade-old company which has been a controversial name in the past, is a diverse telecom infrastructure enabler spanning telecom infrastructure development, system integration and manufacture of high-end telecom equipment and optical fibre cable (OFC). The company has passed through various good and bad phases and is now on a steady growth path. Going ahead, its future prospects are all the more promising.

Consider:

  • During the last three decades, HFCL has emerged as a leading OFC manufacturer in the country by delivering innovative, customised and competitive products, and the latest solutions in the high-technology telecom infrastructure sector. The company’s activities cover the entire value chain – from the manufacture of leading-edge telecom products to implementation of telecom networks. The company specialises in the manufacturing of telecom equipment, optical fibre cables and intelligent power systems. It has technical tie-ups for the manufacture of nextgeneration fibre access network equipment (FTTX system) and broadband wireless access solutions (WiFi systems). The company has three manufacturing facilities – at Solan in Himachal Pradesh, Salcete in Goa and Chennai in Tamil Nadu. As a solutions provider, it has implemented several greenfield projects, including the setting up of CDMA and GSM networks, satellite communications, wireless spectrums management and DWDM optical transmission networks.
  • With a view to removing the bad image of the company, the management has resorted to a determined and concerted drive to take the company on a healthy growth path through expansion and diversification, and launching newer products. In recent years, HFCL’s telecom product and turnkey solutions segments have been driving its growth, taking advantage of the government’s thrust on transforming the country into Digital India. This has been on the back of a robust OFC network that addresses fast-multiplying data transmission requirements. With the completion of expansion projects, the company is now addressing the fibre-to-the-home (FTTX) business segment, which has significant growth potential going ahead. Meanwhile, the company has also established itself as a global supplier of OFC products with exports to over 25 countries.
  • The company is spreading its business spectrum by adding the business dimensions of railways and defence, which have excellent prospects ahead. The company has started participating in various railways tenders for design, supply and erection of turnkey telecom networks in railways for freight corridors and Metro Rail projects. As far as the defence segment is concerned, HFCL has been awarded seven licences by the government for manufacturing defence equipment, including radars, communication systems, weapons, night vision systems and fuses. The company is now working at full capacity to meet the growing demand for its products and services.
  • Having started a greenfield project for the manufacture of optical fibre, the company has embarked on a continued expansion on account of the fast-growing demand, and during the last three years it has almost quadrupled its manufacturing capacity from 30,000 CKM to 1,10,000 CKM. Meanwhile, it has also developed many new products to meet the increasing demand for special cable products which are extensively used in overseas markets.
  • At home, all the leading telecom players are customers of HFCL, including Bharti Airtel, Reliance Industries, BSNL and MTNL. Reliance is now entrusting HFCL more and more for its Jio outfit. In fact, Reliance has also taken a small stake in HFCL.
  • Demand for the company’s products and services is growing at a fast pace. It has a robust order book worth around Rs 7,500 crore, reflecting revenue visibility for the next two years.
  • During the last three years, the company has already incurred a capex of Rs 350 crore for beefing up its manufacturing capabilities. It has chalked out a plan to spend Rs 300 crore by fiscal 2023 for OFC expansion, modernisation and setting up facilities for defence products and towards the development of various telecom products.
  • The company has been steadily growing on the financial front. During the last five years, its revenues have expanded from Rs 2,570 crore in fiscal 2016 to Rs 3,547 crore in fiscal 2020, with the profit at net level almost doubling from Rs 119 crore to Rs 204 crore during this period. The company’s financial position is also improving, with reserves at the end of March 2021 standing at Rs 1,517 crore against the equity capital of Rs 128.44 crore.

128.44 crore. The days of controversies – political patronage of the former telecom minister Sukhram, media tycoon Kerry Packer, share price rigging by Ketan Parekh, SEBI and CBI probes, etc — are over and the company is busy concentrating on expansion, product diversification and effective marketing. It seems the time has come for investors to view HFCL from a different angle.

PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (Rs. in crore)

Year Net Series Net Profit EPS (Rs.) Div (%) BV (%) RONW (%)
2018-19 4366.20 184.03 1.40 20.00 11.40 13.72
2019-20 4422.96 203.83 1.60 14.90 14.65
2020-21(E) 4623.00 235.10 1.90 10.00 19.56 15.35
2021-22(E) 5000.00 250.40 2.20 12.00 22.10 17.10

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February 01-15, 2025

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