Portfolio Choice  123    15   

Published: Aug 29, 2019
Updated: Aug 29, 2019

INDIA ENERGY EXCHANGE
BSE ticker code 503806
NSE ticker code SRF
Major activity Diversified
Managing Director Ashish Bharat Ram
Equity capital Rs. 59.25 crore; FV Rs. 10
52 week high/low Rs. 10355 / Rs. 3996
CMP Rs. 110168.80
Market Capitalisation Rs. 60245.26 crore
Recommendation Buy at declines
Market leader eyes huge energy pie

Indian Energy Exchange is India’s premier energy marketplace, providing a nationwide automated trading platform for the physical delivery of electricity, renewable and certificated. Of late, the company has pioneered cross-border electricity trade, expanding its power market beyond India, in an endeavour to create an integrated South Asian power market. It enjoys a virtual monopoly with a 92% marketshare, even as it is still in the early stage of business. Obviously, prospects for the company are highly promising.

Consider:

  • Powered by state-of-the-art and customer-centric technology, enabling efficient price discovery and facilitating the ease of power procurement, the company has a robust ecosystem of 6,800+ participants located across 29 states and 5 Union territories, consisting of 55+ distribution utilities and 500+ conventional generators. It also has a strong base of 4,400+ commercial and industrial consumers, representing industries such as metal, food processing, textile, cement, ceramic, chemicals, automobiles, information technology, institutional housing and real estate, as well as commercial entities. The company has ISO certifications for quality management, information management and environmental management since August 2016, and is approved and regulated by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission. This year, India is facing a severe coal crisis, and a bourse with a near monopoly in electricity trading in India is drawing attention.
  • IEX, the country’s first energy exchange since its inception in 2008, is in the bluest of oceans – its only competitor, Power Exchange of India, would surface months later. A dozen years down the line, IEX still has a vice-like grip over the energy market — which in India means the electricity market — and the company’s fortunes look set for both external and internal reasons. As far as the external factor is concerned, energy markets in India are still evolving. Volumes are still extremely low, cueing fast growth. In a country that consumes 1.3 trillion Kwh of electricity a year, just 6% is traded over the exchange. Most of the electricity is sold by generators to buyers through long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) that are typically spread over 25 years. Thus, though the market will grow on its own, there is additional propulsion in the form of the government whip.
  • The government has now proposed a market-based economic dispatch (MBED), under which power supply will be routed through the market, and any difference between the market price and the price agreed under the PPAs will be squared up offline between the buyer and the seller. The idea is to deepen the market as well as provide a clear market-based price signal. This is a good step for IEX. Another driver is the longer-term contracts and derivatives trading in energy. A decision will be taken very soon. Whenever longer-term contracts – say, for three or six months — and derivatives are allowed, more players will jump to the exchanges. IEX’s blue ocean will hence get bigger.
  • Thanks to its monopoly power, IEX is going from strength to strength on the financial front. During the last five years, its revenues have steadily expanded from Rs 204 crore in fiscal 2017 to Rs 317 crore in fiscal 2021, with the profit at net level inching up from Rs 113.57 crore to Rs 213.49 crore during this period. The company’s financial position is very comfortable, with reserves at the end of March 2017 standing at over Rs 500 crore – almost 17 times its equity capital of Rs 29.85 crore. Needless to say, a bonus issue is on the way.

Prospects for the company have got a big boost from the fact that the country is facing a severe coal crisis and the government’s intent to push ahead with reforms will change the dynamics in the nation’s power sector. Even as the share price has shot up recently, these stocks are worth accumulating at every decline.

PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (Rs. in crore)

Year Net Sales Net Profit EPS (Rs.) Div (%) BV (%) RONW (%)
2019-20 294.16 165.04 5.50 -- 11.60 45.48
2020-21 257.13 165.89 9.50 250.0 12.70 44.59
2021-22 (E) 360.10 239.40 7.35 400.0 19.10 44.15
TATA POWER
BSE ticker code 500400
NSE ticker code TATAPOWER
Major activity Electric Utilities
Chairman N. Chandrasekaran
Equity capital Rs. 319.56 crore; FV Re. 01
52 week high/low Rs. 265 / Rs. 51
CMP Rs. 257.25
Market Capitalisation Rs. 82200.11 crore
Recommendation Buy at declines
On cusp of ‘renewable’ revolution

Mumbai-headquartered Tata Power, a prestigious Tata group company, is the country’s largest integrated power company, with a presence across the entire power value chain — generation of renewable as well as conventional power (including hydro and thermal energy), transmission and distribution, coal and freight logistics, and trading. The company is undergoing a renewable revolution to do away with the conventional energy business. Prospects for the company are highly attractive and the stock can emerge as a multibagger.

Consider:

  • Shaken into action by the adverse impact of climate change on human beings and the economy, the world is now determined to go green. Taking its cue, the management of Tata Power has decided to jettison thermal power generation and expand its business in renewable energy. It aims to scale up its renewable portfolio from the current 4 GW to 15 GW by 2025 and further to 25 GW by 2030, thereby achieving 80 per cent clear generation capacity, up from the current 31 per cent.
  • The company’s transition into the green segment is gaining strong momentum with nearly 40 per cent of marketshare enjoyed by its EV charging/solar EPC segments. Its solar pumps/solar rooftop business has witnessed huge growth during Q2FY22 with the highest ever order book of Rs 1,100 crore across solar pumps.
  • Till the pandemic badly impacted the company’s sales and earnings, it was doing quite well. During the last five years, its sales turnover had advanced from Rs 6,688 crore in fiscal 2017 to Rs 7,933 crore in fiscal 2019 before declining to Rs 6,181 crore in fiscal 2021. Likewise, the profit at net level spurted from Rs 392.44 crore in fiscal 2017 to Rs 1,708 crore in fiscal 2019, before nosediving to Rs 921 crore in fiscal 2021 under the Covid pandemic’s impact. However, with the waning impact of the pandemic from the current fiscal (2022) year, things have started changing fast. During Q1FY22, the company’s consolidated net profit shot up by 89.3 per cent, as compared to the corresponding quarter a year ago, on account of robust growth in the renewable energy business. The prospects will be much better going ahead.
  • The company’s growth focus is rooted in solar/wind power generation capacity, regulated power transmission/distribution and new ESG-positive businesses such as charging of electric vehicles, solar micro grids, rooftop solar and solar EPC. Regulated businesses in particular will provide steady earnings and cash flow.
  • Experts believe that growth in renewable assets and tax benefits will outweigh the losses in the company’s Mundra project, which has become a proverbial albatross around its neck. A rally in coal prices can swell the losses but profits from its Indonesian coal mine may provide a hedge. Benefits from ESG certification will be a bonus.
  • The company’s remarkable efforts in deleveraging the balance sheet, involving a debt reduction plan, has changed the outlook of the company. The company’s net debt of Rs 36,000 crore by March-end is 1.4 times net debtto-equity equated and 4 times EBITDA. One-fourth of the debt was in regulated assets where interest costs were passed through tariffs. One-third of it was in renewables and the remaining 40 per cent was in the Mundra project and the coal SPV. The management now aims to monetise assets and reduce the debt-to-equity ratio to 1:1. Experts point out that the release of Rs 3,500-4,000 crore equity could come from non-core assets. Moreover, the renewable assets are ready for listing on bourses. That stake sale would provide it with cash to rebuild the debt. Thus, a debt-ridden company is going to be a totally debt-free entity.

Thus, a renewable transition and deleveraging of the balance sheet will elevate a listless stock into a multi-bagger.

CONSOLIDATED PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (Rs. in crore)

Year Net Sales Net Profit EPS (Rs.) Div (%) BV (%) RONW (%)
2018-2019 7932.83 385.30 1.40 130.0 52.50 2.84
2019-20 29136.37 241.17 0.80 155.0 64.70 1.38
2021-22 (E) 37010.00 625.40 2.15 160.0 66.30 3.33
2020-2021(E) 32468.10 609.73 1.90 155.0 65.20 3.14
TRIDENT
BSE ticker code 521064
NSE ticker code TRIDENT
Major activity Textiles
Managing Director Rajiv Dewan
Equity capital Rs. 509.60 crore; FV Re. 01
52 week high/low Rs. 42 / Rs. 7
CMP Rs. 40.60
Market Capitalisation Rs. 20689.58 crore
Recommendation Buy at declines
Taking home textiles global

Trident, a Ludhiana (Punjab)-headquartered company, is one of the fastest growing and well-diversified companies engaged in the manufacture of yarn, textile, paper and chemicals. The company is doing very well and viewed in the context of its growth plans and operational efficiency, its future prospects are highly promising.

Consider:

  • The company is a leading manufacturer of yarn and its product mix includes 100 per cent cotton blended yarn, special openended yarn, organic cotton core spun yarn, Eli-twist yarn, compact yarn, stub yarn and an exclusive range of value-added yarns like mélanges, package dyed, gassed mercerized yarn, zero twist, wrapper yarn, bamboo/cotton, modal/cotton, soya/cotton, polyester/cotton, BCI/ cotton, MMP/cotton and 100 per cent dyed yarn. Trident employs over 5.83 lakh spindles and 6,464 rotors across various locations, producing a massive output of 350 tonnes per day. The manufacturing unit is equipped with the latest technology such as a blowroom from Trustzehler, ring frames from Zinsset and Murata, compact attachments of Suessen and testing technologies from UT 5. All its good-quality yarns are very much in demand at home as well as abroad.
  • A half of yarns is used for captive production of home textiles, mainly bedsheets and bath linen, which contribute around 82 per cent of the company’s revenues. In fact, the company is the number one manufacturer of terry towels in the world. The company has acquired wide and varied global scale capabilities in terry towel and bed sheet production – from a variety of fibres and yarns to a range of colours and a complete collection of performance finishes and surface decorations.
  • Of late, India’s share in the global home textiles market is on the rise and has been increasing at a rate of 15 per cent yoy. India also commands the third largest marketshare in the Asia-Pacific home textile market. This trend puts Trident – a highly capable manufacturer of bedsheets and bath linen — in a sweet spot as the export share of the company is on the increase. Its market share in terry towel exports to the US has shot up from 10 per cent in 2014 to around 20 per cent by now.
  • The paper business contributes around 20 per cent to the turnover of the company. Trident is the largest manufacturer of wheat straw-based paper in the country. The company has a significant presence in copier paper which accounts for around 60 per cent of the company’s paper sales. As copier paper commands high margins, the company has concentrated on the production, quality and sales of this segment.
  • As all the divisions are doing very well, Trident is taking rapid strides on the financial front. During the last seven years, its sales turnover has expanded from Rs 3,737 crore in fiscal 2015 to Rs 4,249 crore in fiscal 2019, before declining to Rs 4,538 crore in fiscal 2021. As the pandemic’s impact is on the wane, things have started improving at a fast pace. In Q1 of fiscal 2022, the company has achieved a sales turnover of Rs 1,477 crore as compared to Rs 708 crore in the corresponding quarter a year ago, and has earned a net profit of Rs 203.50 crore as against just Rs 10.10 crore in the earlier period. Going ahead, the company is expected to make rapid strides as its home textile products are very much in demand in overseas markets. The company will get the benefit from its strong long-term experience of being a leading player with a fully integrated manufacturing set-up. Trident appears to be at the start of a high-growth cycle driven by (a) remarkable growth in the bed linen segment, (b) higher utilisation in the bath linen segment, (c) a growing share in the global market and a high paper business margin driven by branded copier paper

Shares of the company are available around Rs 40/41 (face value Re 1) and are worth investing in with a long-term perspective.

PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (Rs. in crore)

Year Net Series Net Profit EPS (Rs.) Div (%) BV (%) RONW (%)
2018-19 5219.52 370.92 7.30 30.0 6.10 12.90
2019-20 4727.67 337.89 0.70 36.0 6.00 11.27
2020-21 (E) 4530.62 345.74 0.60 36.0 6.50 10.43
2021-22 (E) 4913.15 372.65 0.95 40.0 6.76 11.40

February 15, 2025 - First Issue

Industry Review

VOL XVI - 10
February 01-15, 2025

Formerly Fortune India Managing Editor Deven Malkan Assistant Editor A.K. Batha President Bhupendra Shah Circulation Executive Warren Sequeira Art Director Prakash S. Acharekar Graphic Designer Madhukar Thakur Investment Analysis CI Research Bureau Anvicon Research DD Research Bureau Manager (Special Projects) Bhagwan Bhosale Editorial Associates New Delhi Ranjana Arora Bureau Chief Kolkata Anirbahn Chawdhory Gujarat Pranav Brahmbhatt Bureau Cheif Mobile: 098251-49108 Bangalore Jaya Padmanabhan Bureau Chief Chennai S Gururajan Bureau Chief (Tamil Nadu) Ludhiana Ajitkumar Vijh Bhubaneshwar Braja Bandhu Behera

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