Editorial     

Don’t kill the telecom goose

The Indian telecom sector has made rapid strides, emerging by April 2021 as the second largest globally with a total subscriber base in the country of 1,203.47 million – very nearly the population of India! It is estimated that over the next five years, the rise in mobile phone penetration and a decline in data cost will add 500 million mobile and internet users, creating a slew of opportunities for new businesses.

However, the government’s attitude towards the telecom industry till now has been regressive. Only now has there been some welcome change in New Delhi’s approach with the likelihood of some relief for the debt-stricken telecom sector, which is saddled with debts of over Rs 8 lakh crore. As is well-known, Vodafone Idea is in the worst situation and is in fact struggling for survival.

The government’s more liberal approach towards the beleaguered industry has not come a day too soon as there are only three major players left where earlier there were about a dozen. And of these three ‘survivors’, Vodafone fares worst of all as owes the government nearly Rs 106 lakh crore towards AGR (adjusted gross revenues). The British company could not have dreamt when it entered Indian shores that one day it would be staring at disaster on account of the totally indifferent attitude of successive governments. It almost seems as if successive governments did not want Vodafone to do in this country.

It would be a body blow to the telecom industry as a whole if Vodafone is finally forced to shut shop. In such a scenario, with only a duopoly remaining, consumers will almost certainly face the prospect of growing tariff hikes. It needs to be said that Vodafone is an accomplished player in the industry and has performed very well as far as technological excellence and customer service are concerned.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already taken a momentous decision to withdraw the retrospective tax law, and now the government should go a step further by deferring payment of dues by companies like Vodafone which are crushed under mountainous debt so that they can improve operational profitability. Again, the government has charged too high a price for spectrum and hence it will be quite logical if spectrum usage charges (SUC) are lowered to offer some more relief to telecom companies.

Undeniaby, mobile phones have been a boon to people and the country as a whole. The rapid growth of online payments over the past few years is a case in point. This could not have happened without widespread access to mobile phones and digital services like UPI (united payments interface). For another, online classes for millions of young persons during the pandemic phase would not have been possible without mobile communications.

Thus, a robust, multi-player telecom sector is vital for citizens’ connectivity and accelerating India’s economic growth. The government has taken a step in the right direction with the scrapping of the retrospective tax law. Now, it should use farsighted policy decisions to nurture the telecom sector in the interests of healthy growth of the industry. Viewed in the context of rising population and improving incomes, the country needs one more player besides Bharti Airtel, Reliance Jio and Vodafone.

written by

Deven Malkan

Cover story     

Electric Vehicle Industry: Exciting Times Are Ahead

The Indian automobile industry, which had accelerated to the seventh position in its segment globally in 2017, and further to fifth place in 2021, and is most likely to claim the third spot by 2030, is on the verge of a silent (almost literally!) revolution – graduating to electric vehicle (EV) mobility. If the continuing stress and the slow but steady policy decisions being taken by the government to promote the EV segment are any indication, this ‘green’ segment is set for a boom time in the not too distant future.

Grapevine         

Birla desperate to say ta-ta to telecom

The Birla group has set an internal target to exit the telecom business by the end of the current fiscal. The group is ready to sell its 27% stake in the company even for Re 1.

All eyes on govt’s family silver sales

With the Indian government planning to sell its assets worth Rs 6 trillion, all eyes are on which group will bag which asset. Speculation is rife that while the Tata group will be given Air India, Steel Authority of India and defence companies, Reliance will take home BSNL and MTNL, and even BPCL.

Govt’s clean-up diktat to IL&FS

The Indian government is losing patience with the slow pace of debt resolution at IL&FS even three years after changing the board and assigning Uday Kotak to salvage the sinking ship.

Flawed law mocks debt resolution

The Modi government had come out with a brand new law to tackle the bad debt mess which had touched as high as Rs 10.5 trillion in 2016. The law was supposed to help banks recover their loans expeditiously and reduce litigation time for banks to recover dues from errant promoters.

Expert Opinion     

Variable statistics, variable economy!

The government statistics used the year-on-year (yoy) comparison method, showing a growth of 20% in GDP in Q1 this year compared to Q1 last year, to claim that India was experiencing a V-shaped recovery. On the other hand, several government critics used the quarter-on-quarter (qoq) method to claim that the economy was losing momentum since it showed a 17.7% contraction in Q1 this year as opposed to Q4 (January, February, March) of last year.

Industry Report     

CHLOR ALKALI INDUSTRY: Modernising to stay competitive

Although it does not grab headlines like the petrochemical and pharmaceutical industries, the chlor-alkali industry is a very important segment which has contributed significantly to the growth of the chemical and allied industries. The segment, producing caustic soda, chlorine and soda ash besides a few other related products, provides inputs that go into a diverse range of industrial and consumer goods. What is more, in a time when self-reliance is all talk, this industry is notable for meeting most of India’s needs. No doubt, the industry does operate under a threat of cheaper imports, but given inputs at competitive prices and the right policy support, it can stand up to the heat.

Captains Speak     

Tata Chemicals: Focus on investment, cash flow, deleverage

Maintaining that “the prospects for Tata Chemicals are quite encouraging”, MD and CEO R Mukandan says,”What we have seen from the start of the year is that the demand environment across all geographies has been positive and it is likely to improve further going forward. I think we will see sequentially even further improving demand going forward. But compared to previous years, certainly the quarter one of the current year was much better in terms of demand.

In Focus     

GROWTH OF ECONOMY IN Q1 FY22: Govt spend shoring up GDP

The Indian economy has registered high growth in Q1FY22 vis-a-vis Q1FY21. This, however, is a statistical phenomenon owing to the record low reading of a year ago and is not reflective of the weakness in the domestic economy, according to Care Ratings. The reimposition of restrictions/ lockdowns, which were localised in many regions since the start of the current financial year, has impacted economic output in Q1FY22. This raises a question over the optimism that the localised and targeted confinement measures tend to have a less severe impact on the economy and that businesses and households have adapted to restrictions.

Fortune Scrip     

B2B conquered, B2C in sights

The wires and cables sector has assumed a lot of importance of late, particularly on account of the remarkable stress on infrastructure development by the government as well as because of a fast-growing real estate industry. Ergo, our Fortune Scrip this time is Polycab India, the leading player in this segment.

Economy     

Growth is up but not yet at pre-pandemic level

The output of the eight core sectors grew by 9.4% in July 2021, this growth coming against a contraction of 7.6% in July 2020. The monthly index was higher by 1.1% in comparison to the pre-pandemic level of July 2019. The core sector output for June 2021 has been revised upwards from 8.9% to 9.3%. On a sequential basis, the core sector output grew by 5.4%. This improvement can be viewed in the context of the slow resumption of economic activities across states with the subsiding 2nd wave of Covid-19 towards the end of the first quarter of FY22.

Market Winds         

Berger Paints
(BSE Code 509480)

Shareholders of Berger Paints, the second largest paints maker in the decorative segment, are waiting for fiscal 2023- 24 when the company will hit and celebrate its first century. They are expecting befitting colourful celebration of the first 100 years of the prestigious company which has travelled a highly exciting journey so far.

Reliance Industries
(BSE Code 500325)

If shareholders of Berger Paints are waiting for fiscal 2023- 24, those of Reliance Industries are awaiting for 2027 which will mark the golden jubilee of the company. After the division of the Ambani empire, this is the first major occasion when shareholders can expect exciting news and valuable goodies.

ITC
(BSE Code 500875)

Though FIIs (foreign institutional investors), FPI (foreign portfolio investor) and other institutional investors are religiously keeping away from ITC on account of ESG considerations they do not move even an inch despite all leading indices have scaled now all-time high. Interestingly, the attitude of millions of retail investors has started changing dramatically. In fact retail investors are in a celebration mood at the ITC counter

Portfolio Choice         

SRF LTD. - Growth rocket of speciality chem

An extraordinary company, SRF Ltd (earlier known as Shri Ram Fibres) is a chemical-based multi-business conglomerate engaged in the manufacture of industrial and speciality intermediates. Its well-diversified business portfolio covers technical textiles, flurochem speciality chemicals, packaging films and engineering plastics.

KEI INDUSTRIES - Focus on retail to boost revenues

Delhi-headquartered KEI Industries is a fast-growing onestop shop for cables. It offers a wide range of cables, including extra high voltage (EHV), medium voltage (MV) and low voltage (LV) power cables, and serves both retail as well as institutional segments. No doubt, the pandemic administered a blow to the company’s working during the first half of fiscal 2021.

SURAT TEXTILE MILLS - Weaving a post-Covid revival

Incorporated in 1945, Surat Textile Mills is a leading textile company and one of the oldest in the textile city of Surat. It is engaged in the manufacture of yarn, cloth, polyester filament yarn, polyester chips (with on installed capacity of 24,500 tonnes per annum) and spun yarn. It has three manufacturing facilities, two in Surat district and one in Silvassa.

February 15, 2025 - First Issue

Industry Review

VOL XVI - 10
February 01-15, 2025

Formerly Fortune India Managing Editor Deven Malkan Assistant Editor A.K. Batha President Bhupendra Shah Circulation Executive Warren Sequeira Art Director Prakash S. Acharekar Graphic Designer Madhukar Thakur Investment Analysis CI Research Bureau Anvicon Research DD Research Bureau Manager (Special Projects) Bhagwan Bhosale Editorial Associates New Delhi Ranjana Arora Bureau Chief Kolkata Anirbahn Chawdhory Gujarat Pranav Brahmbhatt Bureau Cheif Mobile: 098251-49108 Bangalore Jaya Padmanabhan Bureau Chief Chennai S Gururajan Bureau Chief (Tamil Nadu) Ludhiana Ajitkumar Vijh Bhubaneshwar Braja Bandhu Behera

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