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Published: June 10, 2023
Updated: June 10, 2023

El Nino Arrives, Signalling Worldwide Weather Turmoil and Impacts on Indian Monsoon and Economy

El Nino, the powerful weather phenomenon known for its global impact, has made its presence felt once again. This article explores the recent developments, potential consequences, and specifically focuses on the implications for the Indian Monsoon and the economy.

El Nino Emerges, Potentially Making 2024 the Hottest Year:

The US Climate Prediction Center confirms the arrival of El Nino, as sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have risen above normal levels. Experts predict that this event will likely persist until next spring, with an 84% chance of reaching moderate strength by the end of the year. Furthermore, it is feared that El Nino will contribute to surpassing the critical 1.5°C warming milestone, making 2024 the hottest year on record.

Global Consequences and Historical Impact:

El Nino disrupts weather patterns worldwide, leading to severe repercussions. In the past, strong El Nino events, such as those in 1997-98 and 2016, have caused extensive damage, costing trillions of dollars and resulting in thousands of deaths. Impacts range from droughts in Australia and India to increased rainfall during California winters. Additionally, El Nino can generate wind shear that tears apart hurricanes and tropical storms in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

El Nino's Effects on North America and Beyond:

Fortunately, the immediate effects on North America are expected to be limited during the summer months. The upcoming El Nino is unlikely to significantly impact the region until the Northern Hemisphere winter. Nevertheless, as El Nino intensifies, its influence on global weather patterns amplifies, potentially leading to significant disruptions worldwide.

Implications for the Indian Monsoon and Economy:

El Nino's arrival raises concerns about the Indian Monsoon, a critical weather phenomenon for the country's agricultural sector and overall economy. El Nino often brings drought conditions to India, which can adversely affect crop yields, water availability, and livelihoods of millions. The implications extend beyond the agricultural sector, potentially impacting industries reliant on monsoon-dependent resources, such as hydropower generation.

Economic Consequences and Preparedness:

Given the historical economic costs associated with strong El Nino events, it is crucial to anticipate and prepare for the potential impact on the global economy. The 1997-98 El Nino alone incurred losses of over $5 trillion and led to numerous fatalities. Governments, businesses, and communities should prioritise disaster preparedness, early warning systems, and risk mitigation strategies to minimise the human and economic toll caused by this impending weather event.

With El Nino's return, the world braces for weather turbulence, anticipating potential global heat records and significant disruptions to weather patterns. While the immediate impact on North America is projected to be limited, the Indian Monsoon and economy face potential challenges, including drought conditions and reduced agricultural output. Collaborative efforts across nations, proactive measures, and resilience-building strategies are vital to mitigate the adverse effects of El Nino and safeguard communities and economies against its wrath.