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Published: March 26, 2024
Updated: March 26, 2024

Good news : La Nina to Return: Above-Average Monsoon Expected for India

Monsoon Forecast Announcement

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APCC) Climate Center has unveiled its initial monsoon forecast for India, presenting optimistic projections for the upcoming rainy season. The forecast, divided into two periods from April to June and July to September, anticipates above-average rainfall during the crucial monsoon period from July to September. This shift in forecast is attributed to the recent ENSO alert signalling a transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions.

ENSO Alert and Implications:

On March 15, 2024, the APCC introduced an update to its ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) alert system, indicating a La Nina WATCH for the period spanning April to September 2024. This alert underscores the importance of vigilance among stakeholders and policymakers to monitor climate patterns closely due to the potential impacts associated with La Nina conditions, including altered weather patterns and environmental consequences.

Monsoon Outlook:

According to the APCC Climate Center's forecast for July to September, there is a heightened probability of above-normal precipitation across various regions, including eastern Africa, the Arabian Sea, India, the Bay of Bengal, Indonesia, the Caribbean Sea, the tropical North Atlantic, southern Australia, and the southern South Pacific. Additionally, some regions of East Asia and northern Australia are expected to experience above-normal precipitation.

IMD's Perspective:

Previously, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had hinted at abundant rainfall during the monsoon season, attributing it to the diminished influence of El Nino and the emergence of significant La Nina conditions in the Pacific region after May. El Nino, characterized by warming waters in the central Pacific Ocean, directly impacts weather patterns over the Indian peninsula.

La Nina Dynamics:

La Nina, on the other hand, signifies the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Typically occurring every 3 to 5 years, La Nina events represent the cool phase of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.

Impact on Agriculture and Water Crisis:

The June-September monsoon holds immense significance for India's economy, providing approximately 70% of the country's required rainfall for crop irrigation and replenishing reservoirs and aquifers. This forecast brings hope for the agricultural sector and alleviates concerns surrounding India's impending water crisis.

As La Nina makes its presence felt, India braces for a potentially fruitful monsoon season, offering relief to the agricultural sector and addressing looming water scarcity concerns. The transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions signifies a shift towards more favourable weather patterns, underscoring the importance of proactive measures to capitalize on this opportunity for sustainable growth and resilience in the face of climate challenges.