News

Published: Apr 13, 2023
Updated: Apr 13, 2023

India May Face Below-Normal Monsoon Season Due to El Niño - May impact economic growth due to drought concerns

India may experience a below-normal monsoon season this year, according to Skymet Weather, a private forecaster. The forecaster predicts that the rainfall will be 94% of the long-period average, with an error margin of +/-5%, due to the increased chance of El Niño. This news follows four consecutive seasons of above-normal and normal rainfall. The states of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh are likely to receive less than normal rains in the second half of the season.

Understanding Monsoon Season in India

India's monsoon season begins in June and lasts for four months. Rainfall between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 88 centimeters is defined as average or normal. Last month, unseasonal rains and hailstorms damaged ripening crops, such as wheat, causing farmers to suffer losses. Nearly half of India's farmland depends on the monsoon for crops such as rice. The monsoon is crucial for summer crops as it brings about 70% of India's annual rainfall.

Impact on the Indian Economy

The monsoon season is one of the mainstays of India's economy as it spurs farm produce and improves rural spending, besides impacting inflation, jobs, and industrial demand. Good farm output keeps food inflation under check, and ample harvests raise rural incomes and help inject demand into the economy.

Skymet's Forecast

Skymet has stated that there is a 40% chance of below-normal rainfall, 25% chance of normal rainfall, 15% chance of above-normal rainfall, and 0% chance of excess rainfall. The forecaster said that the southwest monsoon was above normal and normal for the last four consecutive seasons because of Triple-Dip-La Niña. However, now that La Niña has ended, the likelihood of El Niño is increasing, and its probability to become a dominant category during the monsoon is growing larger.

Factors Influencing the Monsoon Season

Skymet stated that other factors are influencing the monsoon season besides El Niño. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has the potential to steer the monsoon and negate the ill effects of El Niño when sufficiently strong. El Niño and IOD are likely to be "out of phase" and may lead to extreme variability in the monthly rainfall distribution.

IMD's Forecast- Projects 96% of LPA RAINS

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that a transition to El Niño was expected by July-September, with its chances increasing through the fall. There is a 48% chance of El Niño establishing during the June-August season and impacting the monsoon. The phenomenon together is called the ENSO and has a high correlation with warmer summers and weaker monsoon rains in India.

Worries for the agricultural sector and fertilizer stocks

India's agricultural sector heavily relies on the monsoon season, and the forecasted below- normal rainfall may impact it. The prediction by Skymet may help farmers and policymakers to plan and prepare better for the upcoming monsoon season. As the monsoon season is crucial for India's economy, any deviation from the normal rainfall patterns may have far- reaching consequences