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Published: May 31, 2023
Updated: May 31, 2023

India's Q4 GDP Data Expected to Reflect Strong Growth Amidst Sector Variations

The National Statistics Office (NSO) is set to release India's GDP data for the quarter ended in March and for the fiscal year 2022-23. Anticipation is high as experts predict robust growth driven by factors such as agricultural prospects and domestic consumption. This article explores the projections made by experts ahead of the data release, highlighting the varying trends across different sectors of the economy.

Positive Growth Outlook for Q4 2022-23:

Experts forecast that India's GDP is likely to have grown by 5.5% during the January-March 2023 quarter, surpassing the previous quarter's growth rate of 4.4%. Factors such as favourable agriculture conditions and improved rural consumption are expected to contribute to this growth. There are possibilities that the actual GDP figures could exceed the initial advance estimate of 7% by the NSO.

RBI and Expert Projections:

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) estimates project a real GDP growth rate of 5.1% for the previous quarter and a growth rate of 6.5% for the fiscal year 2023-24. These projections indicate positive momentum in the Indian economy. Normal monsoons, enhanced business and consumer confidence, and robust credit expansion are further factors bolstering the growth outlook.

Sector-wise Variations:

While overall growth is expected, economists highlight variations in different sectors. Services demand is projected to outpace goods demand, with a notable rise in services exports despite a contraction in merchandise exports. Domestic demand for services is expected to remain strong, but there are signs of a consumption recovery led more by urban areas than rural regions.

Diverse Expert Projections:

Expert opinions vary regarding India's GDP growth for the mentioned periods. Projections range from 5.1% for Q4FY23 and 7% for FY23, set by Madhavi Arora of Emkay Global Financial Services, to 4.4% for Q4FY23 and 6.8% for FY23, as projected by Care Ratings. These variations reflect the mixed performance of sectors such as services, manufacturing, and net exports.

Indian Companies' Strong Performance:

Indian companies have demonstrated strong performance, with approximately 1,700 listed entities reporting significant top-line growth of 12% in Q4FY23. Net profits also witnessed an impressive growth rate of around 19% compared to the previous year. This highlights the resilience and strength of Indian businesses.

As India awaits the release of Q4 GDP data, experts project positive growth for the mentioned period, emphasizing the influence of agriculture, domestic consumption, and services exports. However, variations across sectors suggest the need for a balanced approach to ensure sustained economic growth. The strong performance of Indian companies and increased foreign capital inflows further contribute to a positive economic outlook.