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Published: June 22, 2023
Updated: June 22, 2023

Monsoon Delay Raises Concerns about Agro-economic growth, but Experts Predict Revival and Decreasing Shortfall

The onset of the southwest monsoon has been weaker than expected, causing delays in sowing kharif crops. While this is a cause for concern, experts believe that the situation does not warrant panic. Meteorologists and industry professionals are optimistic about a revival of monsoon rains in the coming weeks. Historical data shows that poor rainfall in June does not necessarily mean a weak monsoon season overall. In 2019, despite a late arrival and sluggish progress, the monsoon recovered in July, resulting in a normal monsoon year. Similarly, experts predict that this year will see a monsoon revival, which will alleviate the current shortfall.

Delayed Monsoon Start, but No Need for Panic:

The southwest monsoon has begun with below-normal rainfall, leading to delays in the sowing of kharif crops. However, experts reassure that there is no need for panic at this stage. In previous years, similar conditions in June did not result in a weak monsoon for the entire season. The year 2019 serves as an example when rainfall in June was significantly below average, but the monsoon recovered in July, leading to a normal monsoon season. Experts believe that a similar pattern of monsoon revival is likely this year.

Predicted Monsoon Revival to Reduce Shortfall

Meteorologists and scientists are confident that a monsoon revival is on the cards as a LPA brews in the North Bay of Bengal. The second pulse of the southwest monsoon is expected to begin and continue until the middle of July. This revival will bring good monsoon rains to central, west, and northern parts of India. They anticipate that by next week, the rains will cover the entire country, narrowing down the current rainfall deficit considerably. Although June is likely to experience below-normal rains, the deficit will gradually diminish.

Preparedness for Remedial Strategies and Agro-Advisories:

While the delay in sowing is a concern, experts emphasise that proper remedial strategies are already in place. Agro-advisories and guidance have been provided to help farmers navigate the situation. It is crucial not to panic or become unduly worried, as the monsoon revival is expected to address the current shortfall. The focus is on implementing appropriate measures to mitigate the impact of delayed rains on agricultural activities.

Limited Impact on Agrochemical Demand:

The delay in the progress of the southwest monsoon may have a temporary impact on the demand for agrochemicals. However, the agrochemical industry is well-prepared to address this challenge. Climate-positive solutions, such as hybrid seeds and bio-pesticides, can help mitigate the effects of water scarcity and climate change. Companies like Corteva Agriscience and Bayer have comprehensive portfolios of products, solutions, and advisory services to support farmers during the kharif season.

Potential Impacts on Crop Cultivation:

Some concerns remain regarding the severity of El Niño and its influence on this year's monsoon. Paddy cultivation, which requires substantial water supply, may not be affected in states like Punjab and Haryana due to their well-established canal networks. However, other regions heavily dependent on monsoon rains might face water shortages, impacting paddy growers. As a revival in monsoon is expected in the last week of June, there is hope for a turnaround in paddy sowing.

Shift towards Short-Duration and Water-Efficient Crops:

In response to the delayed monsoon, farmers may consider opting for short-duration crops that require less water, such as pulses, maize, jowar, and bajra. It is anticipated that overall oilseeds acreage may be lower this year